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Hurricane Roof Failure Risk Estimator

Estimate your roof's probability of failure during a hurricane (2025)

Insurance Tools

Hurricane Roof Failure Risk Estimator (2025)

Calculate your roof’s estimated risk of failure during a hurricane, based on roof materials, design, installation quality, mitigation, and storm intensity.

Inputs
Enter location, roof characteristics, mitigation features, and storm scenario.
12 yrs
Tip: roofs >15 years typically see step-up risk in underwriting.

Structural & Mitigation Features

Why Roofs Fail During Hurricanes

Roof failure in hurricanes is typically the result of a combination of factors: high uplift pressures, internal pressurization from breached openings, inadequate roof-to-wall connections, poor nailing or sheathing thickness, and compound damage from flying debris. Understanding these mechanics helps homeowners prioritize the most effective mitigations.

Uplift Forces & Internal Pressurization

Wind moving over the roof creates suction (uplift). If windows or doors fail, interior air pressure rises, which multiplies uplift forces and rapidly increases the chance of progressive roof loss.

Sheathing & Nailing - A Critical Failure Point

Sheathing blow-off is common when nails pull out or spacing is inadequate. Upgrading to 8d ring-shank nails and ensuring sufficient sheathing thickness materially reduces sheathing loss.

Roof Shape: Hip vs Gable vs Flat

Hip roofs distribute uplift forces better and are inherently more resistant. Gable ends and complex roofs create concentrated uplift points that increase failure probability.

State-by-State Risk Snapshot

Florida's HVHZ sees the most severe demands on roofing systems, followed by Gulf Coast states. Building codes, insurer reinsurance costs, and localized exposure determine how aggressively carriers price risk and reward mitigation.

Roof Age vs Storm Survival

  • Under 10 years, generally strong resistance.
  • 10–15 years, increasing underwriting attention.
  • 15–25 years, elevated risk; many carriers may surcharge.
  • 25+ years, highest failure probability and insurability concerns.

Practical Steps to Reduce Failure Risk

  1. Install or upgrade roof-to-wall connectors (clips or double-wrap straps).
  2. Upgrade nailing to ring-shank nails and check sheathing thickness.
  3. Install impact windows or certified shutters to prevent internal pressurization.
  4. Add a Secondary Water Barrier and seal the roof deck.
  5. Reinforce garage doors and gable ends to prevent progressive failure.

FAQ

What is the leading cause of roof failure in hurricanes?

Roof-to-wall connection failure and sheathing blow-off are among the top causes. Internal pressurization from broken openings compounds uplift.

Does roof shape affect hurricane performance?

Yes. Hip roofs perform best under uplift; gable roofs are more vulnerable at end-walls.

Are impact windows necessary?

They are one of the most effective upgrades for preventing internal pressurization and reducing total roof failure risk.

How accurate is this estimator?

This tool uses engineering-informed heuristics (FEMA/IBHS principles) to estimate risk. It is illustrative and not a substitute for a structural inspection or formal engineering analysis.

Disclaimer: This estimator is for planning and educational use only. For an exact structural assessment, consult a licensed engineer or a certified wind mitigation inspector.