Digital Asset Theft Loss Probability Estimator (2025)
Estimate the likelihood of a digital asset breach or theft event based on asset type, storage method, and cybersecurity measures.
MFA, encryption, offline backup, etc.
The estimator models digital asset theft probability by combining storage risk, access frequency, and security posture. It uses proportional risk factors derived from public cybersecurity breach statistics (Verizon DBIR, Allianz Cyber Reports, Chainalysis 2024).
Global digital asset theft in 2024
Source: Chainalysis
Small businesses store assets online without cyber insurance
YoY increase in DeFi thefts
High-value assets = high-CPM users → perfect for monetized educational content and lead generation
| Category | Example | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Phishing / Social Engineering | Fake wallet apps, DMs | Training, 2FA |
| Exchange Hacks | Centralized storage | Cold wallets |
| Smart-Contract Exploits | DeFi code bugs | Audited contracts |
| Insider Theft | Rogue employees | Multi-sig, segregation |
| Malware / Keyloggers | Compromised PCs | Hardware wallets |
| Profile | Storage | Security Layers | Theft Probability | Annual Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casual Investor | Hot wallet | 2 | 4.2% | $2,100 |
| Professional Trader | Exchange | 3 | 3.1% | $15,500 |
| Institutional Custody | Cold wallet + 2FA | 5 | 0.4% | $10,000 |
| SME with Cloud IP | Cloud / 2 layers | 2.5 | 2.5% | $6,250 |
Does this tool give financial advice?
No. It provides an educational estimate for cybersecurity and insurance awareness.
Can crypto theft be insured?
Yes, through specialized digital asset or cyber insurance providers.
Is my hot wallet covered by standard cyber policies?
Rarely, you'll need a dedicated crypto or tech E&O policy.
How do I lower my theft probability?
Add MFA, hardware storage, and custodial coverage.
What's the most secure storage method?
Hardware cold wallets with multi-signature authorization are considered most secure.
How often should I review my security?
Review security measures quarterly and after any major market events or security updates.